North Texas Mean Green vs TX-SA Roadrunners

UT Sa Antonio isn't quite as good as they were a year ago, but Coach Jeff Traylor is building a program and he has his Roadrunners one game shy of becoming bowl eligible. The Roadrunner offense has come alive in their last four games as they have averaged a potent 42 PPG and have a four game winning streak. North Texas is 3-5 on the season and is heading in completely the opposite direction losing three of their last four. North Texas is in trouble as the surging Roadrunner offense will be salivating taking on a North Texas defense that is allowing 40 PPG in its last two, and on the season is allowing 475 yards a game. The matchups here favor the Roadrunners, and I will make a play on UT San Antonio.

North Texas not only is vying for the Conference USA championship, but also looking to avenge a 31-27 loss in the first meeting when UTSA won 31-27 when Frank Harris threw a 10-yard pass to De'Corian Clark with 15 seconds remaining to win the game for the Roadrunners. That game went UNDER by 15 points and the Mean Green's defense has improved allowing an average of 21.3 points since that game, including a 21-17 win over Rice last week that went UNDER by 19.5 points. UTSA has stayed UNDER five of its past seven games, including holding Louisiana Tech and Rice to seven points in each game. Seven of the past eight meetings have gone UNDER and North Texas is 11-4 UNDER after giving up fewer than 20 points its previous game. The Roadrunners allow 26.5 points per game on the season. Take the UNDER.

Here we have a Conference USA showdown between the top two teams, both 3-0, and a sky-high total. North Texas heads out on the road after a two-game home stand and is on a 19-9 run UNDER the total on the road, as well as 23-5 UNDER after two or more straight victories. They're also 25-9 UNDER after a win by 10+ points in conference play. Texas-San Antonio comes off of a 30-10 win at Florida International. The defense is tied with North Texas for the fourth-fewest points allowed in Conference USA. Texas-San Antonio is 26-13 UNDER the total in October tilts, plus they've gone seven straight games UNDER the total at home off a road win. The Mean Green's last three games have seen 78, 73, and 74 points scored. Teams who have put up 70+ total points in three-straight games have gone UNDER the total at a 75% clip the past ten seasons. With first place at stake, look for both defenses to play their best games. Go contrarian and take North Texas/Texas-San Antonio UNDER the total as a Max Play and my October Game of the Month. 

North Texas is 7-3-1 UNDER this season and it has allowed an average of only 12.6 points its last three games, including a 49-7 win over Florida International on Saturday that stayed UNDER by a half-point. UTSA is allowing just 20.1 points per game and will try to stay undefeated after escaping with a 34-31 last-minute victory over UAB. The Roadrunners couldn't run the ball against the Blazers while averaging 1.53 yards per carry, but they gave up 220 rushing yards. UTSA is #29 in the country in yards allowed and the Mean Green is #69. The last six meetings have gone UNDER, including UTSA's 49-17 blowout win in 2020 that still stayed UNDER by two points. The UNDER is 13-6-1 in UTSA's past 20 games overall and the Roadrunners are 17-6 UNDER as favorites. The Mean Green has gone UNDER 10 of its last 11 games after giving up fewer than 20 points its previous game and 10-4 UNDER after scoring at least 40 points. Play the UNDER as a Max Play.