Michigan Wolverines vs Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern has lost both of its road games as favorites, losing by seven at Duke, and a 56-7 drubbing at Nebraska. Throw in a 38-21 home loss to Michigan State as a favorite, and it's clear the Wildcats are rebuilding. They come off a 21-7 win over Rutgers, but they are 16-26 ATS after outgaining an opponent by 125+ total yards. Michigan had a lot of questions coming into the season, but what was not in question was the boatload of returning experience and talent. Four offensive linemen returned to a unit that led the Big Ten with the fewest tackles for loss allowed, and they anchor a powerhouse ground attack that's averaging 246.5 yards on 5.5 yards per carry. Also, the defense has been physical and dominant under first-year coordinator Mike MacDonald, who added more zone coverage. They are currently #21 in the nation in yards allowed, #32 versus the run, and #10 in points surrendered (15.5 per game). Michigan has won 11 of the last 12 meetings with Northwestern and will add to their impressive 5-1 spread run in 2021. Back Michigan for a Max Play.

Michigan's defense is loaded with talent at #13 in the nation in points allowed (14.3 points per game). They are also third in the country in total yards, giving up 139.3 yards passing and 101 rushing per contest. Last week it held Nebraska to just 39 rushing yards. They will lean on that defense again as running back Chris Evans tweaked a leg muscle and may not play. Northwestern has its own running back problems with leading rusher Jeremy Larkin forced to retire after a serious injury. Even with Larkin, Northwestern had the worst running game among Big 10 teams. And the passing game is terrible with a pair of QBs who have combined for three TDs and four picks. Northwestern is on a 38-12-1 run UNDER the total at home, as well as 42-19-1 UNDER on natural grass. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the last six meetings on this field. Back the UNDER.

This is a big Big 10 battle featuring outstanding defenses and run-oriented offenses. Northwestern is allowing 7.0 points per game and Michigan just 7.6 ppg for the nation's top marks. Northwestern is on a 20-7 run UNDER the total, including 21-7 UNDER against a team with a winning record. Northwestern has already posted two shutouts, winning 27-0 at home over Minnesota in last Saturday's conference opener. The Wildcats are led by linebacker Anthony Walker, who has a team-high 44 total tackles with 8 1/2 for loss to tie for third in the Big 10. Northwestern is 11-5 UNDER in Big 10 contests. New Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh inherited a strong defense and has made it even better. The Wolverines have yielded seven points in their last 15 quarters. Michigan is limiting opponents to an average of 71.8 yards rushing for the best mark in the conference. The Wolverines are holding opponents to an FBS-best 19.4 percent on third downs with the Northwestern Wildcats second at 20.0%. Michigan is on a 5-0 run UNDER the total, as well as 6-0 at home. Northwestern's Justin Jackson was held to a career-low 35 yards on 17 carries in last year's meeting. He's the Big 10's third-leading rusher this season with 127.2 yards per contest. And when these rivals clash the UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Play this one UNDER.