New Mexico State has some offensive concerns coming into the New Mexico Bowl. QB Diego Pavia is expected to play although he's battling shoulder injury. Second-leading WR Trent Hudson (551 yards, 10 TDs) won't play after hitting the transfer portal, and third-leading WR Eli Stowers has battled concussion problems. New Mexico State is on a 9-3 run UNDER the total. Fresno State coach Jeff Tedford stepped down and linebackers coach Tim Skipper will be the interim head coach for this bowl. Sophomore QB Mikey Keene has thrown nine TDs and seven interceptions over the last seven games. They lost four of those with the offense averaging 18 points in the defeats. The young quarterback doesn't get much help from a running game that is 116th in the nation in rushing while averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. College football teams like Fresno with a winning record off an upset loss as a favorite are 83-40 UNDER the total when facing a winning team where the total is between 49.5 and 56. Take New Mexico State/Fresno State UNDER the total.
Previous Matchups & Picks
Lines & Odds
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 57% of the public bets were on Fresno State Bulldogs on the -20 ATS. And, 63% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Fresno State would win by a score of 31.0 to 15.3 with Fresno State winning on the moneyline, New Mexico State winning on the spread and the game going UNDER the total.
Final Score
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Lines & Odds
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 62% of the public bets were on New Mexico State Aggies on the -3 ATS. And, 60% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that New Mexico State would win by a score of 26.0 to 25.7, Fresno State winning on the spread and the game going UNDER the total.
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New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
5:45 PM Eastern
Final Score
Lines & Odds
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 74% of the public bets were on Fresno State Bulldogs on the -21 ATS. 93% of the public money was on Fresno State Bulldogs to win on the moneyline. And, 58% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Fresno State would win by a score of 40.2 to 19.1 with Fresno State winning on the moneyline and on the spread and the game going UNDER the total.
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Fresno State at New Mexico State
8:00 PM Eastern
A tough September schedule finds a talented Fresno State team with a losing record. However, this team was 12-2 last season and is off a pair of Mountain West West Division titles and Bowl victories. Fresno is on a 28-8-2 spread run, including 15-5-1 ATS on the road and 25-10-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. They catch a break in facing a terrible and winless New Mexico State squad that is allowing 51.5 points and 554 yards per game! New Mexico State is 3-10 ATS in non-conference games, plus on a 1-8 ATS run at home. The same team that Fresno State recently went to double-overtime with (Minnesota) ripped New Mexico State last year 48-10. Play Fresno State.
Final Score
Lines & Odds
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 57% of the public bets were on Fresno State Bulldogs on the -7 ATS. 57% of the public money was on New Mexico State Aggies to win on the moneyline. And, 53% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Fresno State would win by a score of 35.1 to 32.0 with Fresno State winning on the moneyline, New Mexico State winning on the spread and the game going UNDER the total.
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Fresno State at New Mexico State
8:00 PM Eastern
Fresno State is just 3-6 overall and 1-3 away from home. Their defense is atrocious. They allow 36.2 points per game (No. 113 in the nation), and on the road they've allowed 36, 42, 24 and 45 points. The Fresno State defense has given up big plays at an alarming rate. Missed tackles have led to big gains, and blown coverage and assignments have left gaping holes for opposing backs and receivers to run through on their way to the end zone. It has been happening all season, with a 41-21 loss to Louisiana Tech last week. Tech scored on pass plays of 45, 22 and 75 yards in the first half and had a 53-yard scoring run as well. Wholesale changes are not available because there is no surplus of bodies to add to the mix. The Bulldogs are 7-10-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall, 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games on grass and 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. New Mexico State also has defensive problems, but at least they have some offense. The passing offense is improved, averaging 295 yards and 27 points per game. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Over the past three seasons, the Aggies are 9-1 ATS vs. really bad defensive teams like Fresno (teams allowing 31+ ppg). Take the Aggies with the points.
Final Score
Lines & Odds
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Fresno State would win by a score of 43.9 to 23.7 with Fresno State winning on the moneyline and on the spread and the game going OVER the total.
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