Watching and wagering on college football used to be like squeezing March Madness into one jam-packed Saturday afternoon. You'd spend all week studying odds and matchups to find a few choice lines with the payoff coming over a few Saturday hours. That's not the case today with college football conference games dotting the card from Tuesday to Friday, then spread out almost all day and night on Saturday. This allows professional sports gamblers time to digest games and odds more carefully. The result is a series of opportunities to beat the point spread during the college football week, not just on one weekend afternoon.
Why Use Free College Football Picks Against the Spread
The oddsmakers are smart but not perfect. Over one nine-year stretch, college football underdogs went 3,741-3,618 against the spread, a slight edge over the favorite (also known as "chalk"). That's an underdog spread cover rate of 50.8%. For those who wagered on the college football total, the Under had a slight edge on the Over going 3,680-3,482. That's an Under spread cover rate of 51.4%. Since a bettor needs to hit 52.38% just to break even, the oddsmakers are doing an excellent job of grinding out a consistent profit. That's why casual bettors who wager for fun lose money. In order to beat the spread and make money, it requires a lot of effort and study along with carefully planned wagering strategies to identify the top winning opportunities.
Betting Value in Free College Football Picks Against the Spread
Betting value is calculating the true odds compared to the bookmaker's numbers. This is where careful matchup analysis pays dividends for those who put the time and effort in. Watching and understanding line movement during the day is also inciteful to finding wagering value. The most common winning margins in college football are 3, 7, 14, 10, 4, and 21. Combined they account for around 32% of all final scores, roughly one out of every three games. If you've found 7 or 10-point favorites that you like, it pays to shop around as not all sportsbooks will have 7 of 10. Some will have 7 or 7.5 while others might have 6.5. Or, different books will have the favorite at 9.5, 10, or 10.5. If you pick three games on a college football Saturday that are close to one of those six key numbers, the chances are at least one is going to have a final score on that number or close to it. It takes extra time to search for the best point spread value but it's worth the effort, especially over the long haul of a college football picks season.
Wunderdog Free College Football Picks Against the Spread
I've been putting the effort in for over 20 years studying situations, matchups, numbers, and line movement. It begins by sifting through gameday information and lining up the essential details. If a team has won two straight on the road by double-digits and is playing its third straight road game, the situation is working against them on the long road trip. If a college football team won its first six games but then loses a heart-breaker to see an undefeated season disappear, the emotional blow can carry over to the next game. They might have a poorer performance than fans and the oddsmakers expect. If a team goes from a 7 to 11-point favorite on a Thursday night TV game, it's often because the average bettor is backing them, giving a few extra points to the underdog. I know the ins and outs of college football handicapping dynamics and will share that insight with you.
Free College Football Picks Against the Spread vs. Premium Picks
Free College Football Picks Against the Spread Pros:
- Streamlines the most essential CFB betting information
- Shows who are moving the lines and why
- Insight into smaller football conference conferences
Free College Football Picks Against the Spread Cons:
- Too many favorites
- Analysis can be limited, lacking, or confusing
- Failure to release past won/lost records
Premium College Football Picks Against the Spread Pros:
- Time saver for you with a pro doing all the football legwork
- Reading through the best daily picks improves your football-handicapping critical thinking
- A professional service can find difficult-to-obtain information
Premium College Football Picks Against the Spread Cons:
- Marketing hype and exaggerated winning percentages
- A shortage of money management advice
- Detailed reasoning is essential as only a handful of games contain wagering value
How To Win With Free College Football Picks Against the Spread
There are so many college football games that handicapping correctly requires time to research. It also requires a background in the world of oddsmaking along with an understanding of line movement. Some line movement is revealing while others are meaningless. You turn a profit wagering on college football with effort, patience, and clear thinking. It requires in-depth knowledge of the teams, matchups, and even the situations unfolding each week on the college gridiron. I insist on wagering a systematic and controlled amount on each game based on mathematical calculations of your betting bankroll and how much line value is present. I'm less interested in being a college football prophet, but more interested in producing college football profit.
Free College Football Picks Against the Spread Betting Strategy
Key Numbers: Totals
Key numbers apply to sides and totals, also known as Over/Under betting. You can wager on the total number of points scored in a college football matchup, such as 55 or 46. College football totals can be higher than NFL contests with far more mismatches in play. It's common to see final CFB scores of 59-24 or 49-38. The most common total points scored in college football are 55, 51, 45, 59, 58, 52, and 41. These are key total numbers. Project your own final score to see if the Over/Under has wagering value. Before making the bet, shop around for the best odds plus examine key totals. An average total pick may turn into an above-average play if the number straddles a key number.
Offensive Lines
Fans may be focused on quarterbacks and flashy wide receivers, but serious bettors pay just as much attention to the unsung guys in the trenches. Offensive lines do so much of the important grunt work. They open up holes for running backs and protect the star quarterbacks from blitzes. It works the other way, too - bad offensive lines can see a 7-point underdog lose by 30 points. Handicapping strong ground attacks behind big lines can have significant matchup edges versus teams that struggle to defend the run. With some of these offensive line mismatches, it doesn't even matter how good or bad the quarterback is. If a team is likely to run the football for 250 yards, the QB won't be throwing much. Examine run defense stats such as yards per rush allowed along with overall rushing yards allowed per game. Conversely, a strong pass-rushing team can have a huge edge against a team that passes all the time but is saddled with a below-average offensive line. They may average 35 points and 300 yards per game, but if the QB is going to be facing a dominant pass rush the matchup suggests they'll have a difficult game getting passing yards and points.
No-Name Teams
With so many college football conferences, it pays to keep up with small conferences and little-known schools. Scan NFL rosters and you'll find many players from small conferences and schools you never heard of. Oddsmakers pay less attention to them, as well. More money will be coming in on games involving high-profile conferences such as the Big 10 and the SEC. College football TV games will feature the top schools and upper-echelon conferences, but many of the best betting mismatches will be with the less-known programs. For serious bettors, little fish can help return bigger paydays.
Free College Football Picks Against the Spread Subscription
With so many games on a weekly college football card, a bettor intent on winning needs all the help they can get. With 133 FBS teams and 11 different conferences, that's a lot of matchups, showdowns, rivalries, and mismatches to dissect. It's easy to access my selections and the betting information I unearth with a free subscription service. My handicapping comes with a detailed analysis so you can see the reasons why there is wagering value. And it's not just college football sides but totals, college football parlays, props, and CFB moneylines. Even if you choose not to wager, you'll pick up valuable information to increase your handicapping insight - and your betting bankroll.
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