Florida State Seminoles vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Combine the Seminoles (-430) and the Mustangs (-3003) into a 2-team parlay at -365 odds.

Georgia Tech won its first two games under interim coach Brent Key, but then lost 16-9 to Virginia in an ugly game and starting quarterback Jeff Sims was knocked out in the first half. Sims is day-to-day and his replacement, Zach Gibson, was sacked seven times and he finished 10 of 25 for 99 yards with no TDs or interceptions against the Cavaliers. Freshman QB Zach Pyron also may get some playing time as well for the Yellow Jackets, who recorded a total of only 41 yards in the second half. Florida State lost three straight to some tough opponents in Wake Forest, N.C. State and Clemson before getting a much-needed bye last week. The Seminoles rushed for 206 yards on 34 carries against Clemson and Jordan Travis completed 24 of 42 for 254 yards and two TDs with no picks. Georgia Tech is 4-11 ATS its past 15 games overall and 3-7 ATS its past 10 conference games. The Seminoles have covered 12 of 15 versus teams with losing records and they are 7-3 ATS their past 10 overall. Make it a Max Play on Florida State.

This is a tough matchup for the Georgia Tech run-oriented offense in facing a strong Florida State defense on a 4-1 run UNDER the total. Florida State has allowed one rushing touchdown this season, which came in the second quarter of the opener against Texas State. The Seminoles also haven't allowed a run of more than 30 yards and only two over 20. Last season they allowed 17 runs of 20-plus yards. This will be the third running quarterback that Florida State has faced this year and the Seminoles are 6-2 UNDER the total in ACC play, plus 13-5 UNDER on natural grass. The unbeaten Seminoles are #19 nationally in run defense, allowing 113.5 yards per game. That is a marked improvement from last season when they allowed nearly double that at 226.8. For the third straight week the Seminoles will be facing a back that is among the ACC leaders, but Louisville's Lamar Jackson was held to 32 yards last week, and on Oct. 10, Miami RB Joseph Yearby gained just 33 yards. Look for the terrific Florida State run defense to shine, meaning this total is far too high. Play Florida State/Georgia Tech UNDER.

Despite the only perfect record in the FBS at 12-0, the Florida State Seminoles have been moved down to #4 in the last poll for the Final Four. They have been plagued by turnovers as Jameis Winston has 17 INTs on the season. It has held this team back offensively, as they have had to come from behind five times this season. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 10-2, and everyone knows what they are going to do, and that is run the football. That simply means fewer possessions in this game. If Florida State starts slowly, they are not going to have as many tries to get back. I think a strong passing game is better against the Seminoles' defense, and Georgia Tech has improved considerably on the defensive side of the ball this season. Florida State has played to an 11-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 12 games on grass, and Georgia Tech owns a 6-1 mark to the UNDER when following a confidence-building win. Play the UNDER.