Successful wagering on college football is not about smoke and mirrors, luck, or even inside information. It takes the right combination of effort, know-how, and money management to beat the sportsbooks, and it begins by having an in-depth knowledge of college football teams. That means studying, as information is king when it comes to winning. Once a person is up to speed on teams and conferences, it is time to apply some tested sports betting angles.
NCAAF Betting: Home Dogs
Home field advantage differs from team to team. Some road teams travel short distances against longtime rivals, so there might not be much of a disadvantage for the visitors. Other schools can play in large stadiums with a rabid fan base, proffering a significant home-field advantage. This is generally true of Notre Dame and many teams in the South where college football is part of the cultural fabric. A betting angle that often has more merit is when home teams are instilled as underdogs. Emotion is an important element in college athletics. Even a mediocre or losing team can be 1-4 on the road but 3-1 at home. When college football teams are in the role of NCAA football home underdog, it's worth closer inspection to determine if a bet is justified. Does the defense play poorly on the road but much better at home? Coaching can play a role, as well. Mediocre coaches often can't get their teams (full of 18-20 year olds) to play well on the road, getting spooked by the crowd rooting against them with sloppy play. But almost all coaches, good or bad, can get their team to play at a higher level in front of the cheering home fans. If a team has lost two of three on the road and is coming home, they can be sitting in the role of home underdog as the oddsmakers notice they're on a losing streak. But many teams see a losing string end with an upset victory because of a timely home game on deck.
Coaching
College Football coaches don't throw touchdown passes or make tackles, but they play a significant role in wins, losses, and spread covers. Organizing, teaching, motivating, and assigning roles to 60 or 70 active players is difficult. Turning that group into a coordinated machine capable of playing at a high level is even more difficult. Good college football coaches can be worth a few extra points each week. Great ones can be worth more. Following his inaugural year at Alabama, Saban lost more than two games just once in sixteen seasons. After his departure, The Tide immediately lost more than that. Good coaches help teams limit penalties and turnovers while maximizing scoring opportunities. Great coaches squeeze the most out of a team - and the scoreboard - which adds up to more wins and better chances to cover. Make a list of winning coaches and examine their records straight up and against the spread. You can also win money with bad coaches — by wagering against them!
Extra Rest
The NFL has one regular-season bye week, which gives teams rest and extra time to prepare. College football schedules can have multiple bye weeks. They can also have "cupcake contests." A cupcake is a weak team on the schedule, usually from a lower division. The bigger schools are expected to win easily, which you'll see when teams are 30- to 40-point favorites. Coaches can use these games to approximate a bye week, giving backups more time to play while resting star players. A rested team facing one that has just played three straight tough conference games can have many advantages not found in the stats. The team off the bye has had extra time to study film, the coaching staff has more time to put in trick plays or identify mismatches, and players have an additional week to heal nagging injuries.
NCAAF Matchups
Matchup angles are a staple of handicapping. One team can have a large offensive line with a strong running back matched up against a team that struggles to contain the run. The strong running team can exploit that matchup for four quarters. That's a matchup that could be more important than other areas that oddsmakers are looking at when setting numbers. If the strong running team has a mobile quarterback with average passing stats, they could even be an underdog against a team with better QB stats. But the ground game matchup versus a suspect run defense might be a far bigger edge to a skilled handicapper.
Handicapping matchups come in many forms, such as a great defense against a great offense, large schools against smaller non-conference matchups, and even coaches versus coaches. Since there are so many college football teams, it's impossible to be an expert on every team without putting the time in. That's why, if limited on time, it can help to begin by being an expert on one conference. Study the strengths and weaknesses of every team in the conference, even the bad ones. Examine the past history of the coaches. Are they competent at building programs? Are their teams historically disciplined, or are they sloppy with penalties and turnovers? Examine the box scores and watch as many games as possible within that conference. The more you absorb, the deeper an authority you become at handicapping matchups and understanding betting odds.
Field Surface
In the beginning, all college football teams played on grass fields. Now, over 90 schools play home FBS football on artificial surfaces, while less than half that many play on natural grass. Turf can give an edge to teams built around speed, though more concerns about injuries exist. Turf provides a consistent surface everywhere, while grass fields can be uneven with divots and patches of thick grass. In addition, the weather can cause more problems with rain on natural grass fields, slowing the pace of play down. A basic betting angle is to study how teams play on their home field compared to how they play on road games with a different type of surface. For instance, teams built for speed might average 34 points per game at home on turf but 21 per game away from home on grass. This betting angle comes in handy not only for sides but when handicapping totals.
Bounce-Back CFB Betting Angle
Even great college football teams can have a bad game. They can suffer a loss as a favorite, even getting beat badly after a sloppy game with too many turnovers or running into a team that had everything clicking. How that team responds the next week is what astute handicappers focus on. One reason is the betting odds often take into account the bad performance. Instead of being a 10-point favorite at home, the number might come closer to 7. In addition, the team is embarrassed after the poor showing. The coaching staff may drive them hard in practice, and the players might have a chip on their shoulder to try and right the ship. If a team is beaten badly on the road and then comes home the next week, that can provide another edge - a scheduling one. Examine the recent history of the head coach - how does his team usually respond after an embarrassing defeat? Handicapping bounce-back angles are about trying to anticipate when a team will play with extra incentive.
Travel and Time Zones
College football teams can travel long distances for a game. Non-conference September games can see West Coast teams flying to the East Coast and changing several time zones. USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington joined the Big 10 traveling from the Pacific coast to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Those middle-of-the-country schools have to make trips to the West Coast to play conference games. Long trips can be tiring, such as Mountain West Conference teams having to fly to Hawaii and vice versa. This is also the case during Bowl season with teams often traveling several thousand miles facing a team that traveled a short distance or is even playing in their own backyard. It's wise to factor long-distance travel and time zone changes into your college football handicapping.
Big Value with Little Guys
The pro football season features roughly 16 games per week. That's 32 sides and totals posted. By contrast, there are around 75 college football games each week - 150 sides and totals to post. That presents a lot more work for oddsmakers. They'll focus on getting the correct odds for the high-profile games, anticipating the most college football betting action on those Top 25 showdowns. They'll get less betting action and be less concerned about small conference action and games featuring mediocre teams. Games involving teams from the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, the MAC, and the Mountain West won't garner many TV viewers compared to the SEC or Big 10. But some of the weakest lines and college football best bets will pop up on smaller conference action featuring lesser-known teams. Generally, going where others do not (focusing on lesser known teams) will offer higher profit opportunities.
Prop Betting Angles
When you bet on college football props are also an area that receives less attention and money. A common quarterback prop bet is "How Many TD Passes With a QB Throw: OVER/UNDER 2.5." It can be 3 or as low as 1.5 depending on the quarterback and the matchup. The way to handicap it is to try and gauge if it's an accurate number or whether it's off. The sportsbook oddsmakers post a QB prop largely based on their season stats. If a signal-caller has thrown 15 TD passes in the first six games, he's averaging between two and three touchdowns per contest. The betting number will probably be 2.5, but take a close look at the matchup. Is he facing a great defense? If not, he may be more inclined to go OVER 2.5 TD passes this week. Is he facing a great run defense? That's important as the team's game plan will have to be geared more towards the pass than the run. More pass attempts mean a QB could go higher than his average number of touchdown passes. Against a great run defense, they aren't as likely to run the football in for scores even inside the five-yard line. It's all about assessing the matchup to try and predict if the QB will have a game lower or higher than his average seasonal stats.
Goal to Go
This checklist might seem extensive, but that's what successfully wagering on college football is all about. The bookmaker has data on every possible scenario before setting the line. For a bettor to uncover value against the number, familiarizing yourself with the team's personnel and digging into the matchups is critical. Researching profitable scenarios and tracking data for things such as the playing surface or how teams perform off a bye week or in the underdog scenario can only help lead you to more winning bets.
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