Central Florida Knights vs Cincinnati Bearcats

The Cincinnati Bearcats have been a team that puts out an above average defense just about every year. They were in an unusual situation last time out in a shootout vs. Texas Tech in a 44-41 loss. I expect Cincinnati is going to dig in this week after the defense was embarrased last game. I say that because defense is their calling card, and after allowing 40 or more points in a game they are 12-3 to the UNDER in their next game. Since 2014 the Bearcats are 75-53 to the UNDER which includes 3-1 this season to FBS opponents. Central Florida had some easy games early, but managed just 34 total points in their last two games vs. Florida and Colorado. Make the play UNDER the total.

Cincinnati did not suffer a letdown as many expected after beating Notre Dame as they crushed Temple, 52-3, and easily covered the 30-point spread on Friday night. The Bearcats are 4-0 ATS against FBS teams this season, and Desmond Ridder continued his Heisman-type play completing 22 of 30 for 259 yards and 3 TDs with no interceptions. Jerome Ford rushed for 149 yards on only 15 carries, and Alec Pierce caught six passes for 93 yards as the Bearcats dominated with their balanced offense. Cincinnati also has excelled defensively, allowing only 12.2 points per game this year. Central Florida eked by East Carolina 20-16, but the Knights are only 1-6 ATS dating to last season. The game stayed UNDER by 29.5 points, and UCF has gone UNDER four of its last five as a road underdog. Cincinnati is 14-6 UNDER versus teams with winning records and 39-17-1 UNDER its past 57 October games. Central Florida is 2-8 ATS its last 10 conference games and 5-11 ATS following an ATS loss. I have two plays for you on this game. Take Cincinnati for a Max Play and the UNDER.

Cincinnati is undefeated and 5-2 ATS while Central Florida has covered the number just twice in seven games. The Bearcats have gotten the money four straight games following their 55-17 wipeout of East Carolina last week. Cincy totaled a whopping 653 yards of offense while holding the Pirates to only 293 and Desmond Ridder completed 24 of 32 for 327 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Ridder also rushed for 75 yards and Cameron Young added 75 more on the ground. The Bearcats are 9th in the country in yards allowed and 3rd in scoring defense giving up only 12.4 points per game. UCF also can put up a lot of points, but the Knights are 58th in yards allowed with opponents scoring 28.7 points per game. Cincinnati has covered five of its last seven road games and it's 5-0 ATS its last five games after a win by at least 20 points. The Knights are 3-8 ATS following an ATS loss and just 1-5 ATS their last six games overall. Lay the points with Cincinnati.