Baylor Bears vs Houston Cougars

Baylor has won and covered four in a row to go 6-4 straight up and 7-3 ATS this season. The Bears defeated West Virginia on Saturday using a balanced attack and totaling 512 yards of offense. Sawyer Robertson completed 26 of 36 for 329 yards and three TDS with no picks for the Bears, who got 123 rushing yards on 18 carries from Bryson Washington. Baylor has averaged 45.8 points its past four games and this is a huge revenge game for the Bears, who lost last year's meeting 25-24 in overtime. Houston was able to muster only a field goal while losing 27-3 to Arizona. The Cougars are 1-5 ATS their past six games as home underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points and the Bears have covered four straight after scoring more than 40 points their previous game. Houston is scoring only 14.0 points per game, including being shut out twice on consecutive weeks. Take Baylor.

Both Baylor and Houston are having tough seasons to this point, and the margin for error for each team qualifying for a bowl game has become slim. Baylor owns two wins vs FBS opponents and those came in a frantic one-point comeback win vs. Central Florida and they squeezed out a 3 point win vs. a floundering Cincinnati team. Houston is off one of their worst showings in a long time as the Cougars were no-shows in a 41-0 whipping at the hands of Kansas St. The last time the Cougars suffered a 40-point or more regular season loss was in 2007. Houston has a small stat edge from the line of scrimmage and has to think after last week this team is going to show up. I like Houston on the moneyline.