Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines

Alabama won't be playing for a national championship, so how up for this bowl will they be? They've split the last two games, beating rival Auburn (28-14) while getting shut down by Oklahoma in a 24-3 loss as a 14-point favorite. That uneven play says a lot about this team, with three quarterbacks combining for just 16 TDs and 10 interceptions. Michigan is on a 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS run, winning twice as big underdogs. The Wolverines were a +19.5 dog against Ohio State but won 13-10. They were also a +14 dog at Indiana and hung in there with tough defense in a 20-15 defeat. The defense is 11th in the nation in yards allowed, 24th in the red zone, and 19th in points (20.5 per game) given up. Play Michigan. 

Michigan is 13-0 and leads the country in scoring defense allowing only 9.5 points per game and the Wolverines are No. 2 in total yards allowed with 239.7 per game and No. 6 in rushing yards allowed (81.7 per game). Michigan also can run the football averaging 161.8 rushing yards with Blake Corum leading the way 1,028 yards on 4.7 yards per carry and 24 TDs this season. J.J. McCarthy has been a solid quarterback for the Wolverines and has thrown for 2,630 yards and 19 TDs with just four picks in 2023 and he is no stranger to big games after beating Ohio State the past two years. Alabama is fortunate to be in the College Football Playoff and the Crimson Tide wouldn't have made it if the Auburn coaching staff hadn't been foolish enough not to rush the quarterback on a fourth-and-31 in the final seconds of the Iron Bowl. Alabama pulled out a win in that game and avoided two losses on the season. This is the toughest defense Alabama QB Jalen Milroe will face this season as the Wolverines are tough against the pass as well as the run. The Wolverines are 7-2-1 ATS their past 10 games. Take Michigan as a Max Play.

CITRUS BOWL - Michigan has a potent and balanced offense behind QB Shea Patterson (22 TDs, 6 INTs), RBs Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins, and WRs Nico Collins (681 yards) and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The offense averages over 400 yards and 33 points per game. And the defense ranks sixth in yards allowed, and #18 in points (19.5 pg). They are a dog to an Alabama squad that is used to playing for the national title. Instead, Nick Saban's team stumbled with two losses, quarterback injuries, and a young defense that was shredded by Auburn (48 points allowed) and LSU (46 points). Even Ole Miss hung 31 on them. Sophomore QB Mac Jones will make his third consecutive start after Tua Tagovailoa dislocated his right hip and is out. Alabama will also be without LB Terrell Lewis and CB Trevon Diggs, who both opted to sit out the game to prepare for the NFL Draft. College football favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a road loss to a conference rival are 5-25 ATS when facing a team with a winning percentage between 60-80%. And Saban is 4-14 ATS after two straight games where 60+ total points were scored. Play Michigan.