Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers

This is a high-impact game. The winner is going to be the favorite to likely take on Georgia in the SEC Championship game. I think Alabama has slipped some over the last few years, and their margin for error has gotten much tighter, especially vs. an explosive LSU offense. that is putting up 47.4 PPG. Alabama is outgaining opponents by just a scant 61 yards per game, one of their slimmest margins in the Saban era. The defense is very good but not as good as we have seen in the past. Meanwhile, the LSU offense is ultra elite generating 553 yards per game, and 47.4 PPG. I think the best unit on the field by far is the LSU offense, and I don't think the Tide defense is in the same category. I like LSU on the moneyline.

Game of the Year - LSU played a great game for their lame-duck coach, Ed Orgeron, when they defeated Florida, 49-42, but then the Tigers went back to their ways that cost him his job in the first place, losing 31-17 at Mississippi two weeks ago. The Rebels jumped out to a 31-7 lead, and LSU managed to gain only 77 yards on the ground on 35 carries while giving up 266 yards rushing on 5.3 yards per carry. The Tigers fumbled four times, losing the ball twice, and Max Johnson and Garrett Nussmeier combined for 20 of 33 for 249 yards and a TD and interception. Alabama has rebounded in a big way from its loss to Texas A&M by beating Mississippi State, 49-9, and Tennessee, 52-24, and the Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS its last five games. Bryce Young completed 31 of 43 for 371 yards and 2 TDs with no picks against the Volunteers, and John Metchie caught 11 passes for 121 yards and 2 TDs. As a home favorite the Tide are on an 8-1 ATS run. Under Nick Saban, they are 28-10 ATS as a favorite in this range (21.5 to 31 points) and 19-10 ATS following a bye. College football big favorites in this range, after putting up 5+ very high scoring games hit at a 76% clip against the spread. The Tide covered last year as a 29-point favorite, 55-17, and I look for a similar result here. Take Alabama for my CFB Game of the Year.

Alabama continues to cruise through its schedule, dominating teams on its way to another College Football Playoff. The oddsmaker can't seem to make the line big enough, as the Crimson Tide have covered five straight despite massive point spreads. That's the situation again this week, as the Tide visits LSU. Alabama is averaging 48.5 points per game and LSU allows 30.3 per game, ranking #96 in the country in total yards allowed. Alabama destroyed Auburn last week as Mac Jones threw for 302 yards and five touchdowns, and Najee Harris had 96 rushing yards on 11 carries. Devonta Smith caught seven passes for 171 yards and two TDs. As expected, LSU is having a down year after losing so much talent from last year's national championship team and the Tigers come off a 20-7 loss to Texas A&M. Alabama has covered five of the last seven meetings, including four of five at LSU. Look for another blowout by the Tide and lay the points with Alabama; Max Play.