Yale vs. Duke

Yale has won 18 of its last 19, including a 79-75 upset of fifth seeded seed Baylor on Thursday. Yale is on a 10-3 spread run and 15-5-1 ATS at neutral sites. The Bulldogs won't want to get into a run-and-gun game with the defending champs. Yale will focus on defense and a slower pace, finishing up tops in the Ivy League in points allowed (63.6 ppg) and second in field goal defense allowing .408% shooting and three-point defense. Yale is 7-3 UNDER the total at neutral sites and 8-3-2 ATS in non-conference games. The Bulldogs are also 34-15-4 ATS following a straight-up win. Duke is off a run-and-gun win over NC Wilmington, but the Blue Devils can play defense, too, on an 8-3 run UNDER the total, including 8-3 UNDER against the Ivy League. When they met earlier in the season Yale shot 39.7% but was even on the glass, holding Duke to just 7-for-22 three-pointers (31.8%). Duke is 20-8 UNDER the total against a team with a winning percentage above .600, plus they've failed to cover the spread in seven straight neutral-site games. Look for Yale to control the tempo in a tough defensive battle, especially early on, and keep this close. Play Yale and the first half UNDER.