Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

Kentucky is a very young team on the Final Four stage Saturday. Not only that, they have the added pressure of being the first undefeated team to get this far since UNLV in 1991 (and the heavily favored Rebels lost). Kentucky has not been invincible, going overtime in back-to-back games in the weak SEC and struggled the last game against Notre Dame. Kentucky is 3-7 ATS against a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. All of that will be a concern against a brilliant defensive team in Wisconsin, one with incredible efficiency on offense. Oh, and the Badgers have one of the biggest and deepest frontcourts in college basketball. Seven-foot senior Frank Kaminsky (18 points per game, 8 rebounds per game), 6-9 junior Sam Dekker (13.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and 6-7 sophomore Nigel Hayes (12.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg) are a handful. Wisconsin also led the Big 10 in defense, allowing just 57.8 ppg. Notre Dame was outstanding all season with offensive efficiency and Wisconsin is also brilliant at ball movement. Even in defeat, Notre Dame made it a game by getting to the rim at will. The Irish got 20 of their 26 field goals on dunks or layups. Notre Dame had 10 in the first half and 10 in the second half. Meanwhile, their 40 points in the paint were tied for the most allowed by Kentucky this season. Wisconsin just hung 79 and 85 points the last two games on strong all-around teams (North Carolina, Arizona). The Badgers were second in the Big 10 from the free throw line (.762%), second in FG shooting (48%) and outscored conference opponents by a whopping +15. Wisconsin is 21-7-1 ATS in non-conference games and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games. This is an evenly matched game, so grab the talented, veteran-laden and versatile dog. Play the points on Wisconsin.