Wisconsin vs. Duke

The Blue Devils were expected by many to be here. Wisconsin, with Kentucky in their way, was not. With the Badgers disposing of the "unbeatable" Wildcats in the Final Four, they appear to many to be a team of destiny. While I was heavy on the Badgers in that game, I like Duke here. The Blue Devils already won at Wisconsin this season, 80-70. The Badgers had their 23-game nonconference winning streak snapped in that one. In that game, Wisconsin senior guard Traevon Jackson (8.6 points per game) was starting and had a big game before a serious injury. He is back, but only playing 9, 7, and 12 minutes the last three games off the bench. This is a difficult matchup for Wisconsin, even moreso than the Kentucky game. Kentucky decided to slow the pace to a crawl, playing Wisconsin's style, not taking advantage of their depth. Duke won't make that mistake being a much better coached team than the Wildcats. Duke is fourth in the nation in scoring (80.6 points per game) and third in shooting, a sizzling 50.2% from the field. And their defense of late has clamped down, allowing just 55 points per game in their last five, against NCAA Tourney teams. Duke is 19-7-1 ATS against a team with a winning percentage above .600, 7-0 ATS in non-conference games, and 5-0 ATS against the Big 10. In that December 8 meeting between these two teams, Duke shot 65% from the field in torching the Badgers on their own court. Wisconsin shot 40.7% and couldn't slow down Duke's lightning quick Tyus Jones (22 points, 7 of 11 shooting). Duke's in-your-face defense caused problems for the Badgers, another thing Kentucky didn't do effectively. Bo Ryan admitted his team was bothered by Duke's length and athleticism on the wings. Sam Dekker (5 points) and Nigel Hayes (4 points) had poor shooting nights, and I expect they may struggle again. This Duke team is 22-11 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 17-9 vs. the best teams (those like Wisconsin outscoring opponents by 4+ points per game). They are also 13-2 straight up this season vs. great defensive teams this season (teams alllowing 64 or fewer per game). As an underdog this season, Coach K's team is a perfect 4-0 straight up. As crazy as it sounds for this game to be a letdown, last game was huge for Wisconsin as they were taking on the supposed best team in the nation in a revenge situation. It's gonna be tough to get up even more for this game, and if they don't they could be in for a long night. Take the Blue Devils to win it all.