Villanova at Georgetown

We had to ponder some numbers regarding Georgetown. Why does a team that shoots 48.3% and 37.1% from three-point range, as well as the best FG percentage defense in the country at 36.4% (and just 29.1% from beyond the arc) struggle against good teams? We have the answer, and along with it, why there is value on Villanova today. Georgetown has dominated the bottom of the conference winning virtually every game by double-digits. It has been a completely different story against the top nine teams, those that are on the bubble, or NCAA tournament teams. All eight games against the bottom resulted in double-digit wins. Their 10 against the top nine have resulted in one double-digit win, three losses, and six wins all decided by three points or less. This is why. They average three more turnovers per game, they are sending the opponent to the line eight more times per game, and they are giving up four more offensive rebounds per game. They have committed more turnovers than these opponents in nine straight games, sent the opponent to the FT line in seven straight for more attempts (10 on average), and have given up 5.4 more offensive rebounds per game in the last eight. That means 10 free throws at an average of 70% is seven points lost, which means that three more possessions at a conversion rate of 40% is 2.4 points and 5.4 more offensive rebounds at a conversion rate of 40% is 4.3 points a game. The Hoyas are spotting opponents 13.7 points a game! These teams also shoot better than what they allow on the season. The bottom line is Villanova is fighting to get over the bubble and Georgetown finds a way to win these games, but not by this size margin. Value on Nova.