This pick was released to clients on September 27, 2012 at 8:27PM ET.
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Utah at Kentucky

March 25, 2005
img9:40 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Everyone is hopping on the Utes bandwagon, and I can see why - a little bit. Bogut is a special player, and he ate up OU with his passing. Utah has played very well the majority of the season and is rightfully in the 16. Kentucky, very quietly, is back where they belong, and are getting it done, granted it has not been pretty. UK will pose major match-up problems on both ends of the court for Utah here though. Kentucky is a very deep team, and a very very disciplined team as well. Had OU played disciplined basketball they would have won that game one week ago. Not to mention, the Sooners did not hit any shots from three, and they had countless open looks. If the Cats stay within Tubby's system on offense here, this one could get very ugly. Kentucky's defense will give the Utes fits here, as they do not thrive under pressure. While Bogut did not have his typical scoring game in the Utes win over Oklahoma Saturday he still had a huge impact as the Sooners were hesitant to attack the basket. However, unlike Oklahoma, Kentucky is more reliant on its outside shooting as they shoot the 3-ball well. If the Wildcats start draining some treys early, which we feel they will, it may force Bogut to come out a bit, thus opening up some clear lanes to the basket. While Utah won a nice game against OU, they turned it over in bunches against the Sooners, and were lucky it did not haunt them late. If they turn it over against the Cats, Azebouke and company will run right through the Utes. I have a lot of respect for Utah and their 29-5 overall S/U mark. However, they had only played two tough non-conference games entering this tournament, and they lost both of those contests vs. Washington and Arizona. While the Utes deserve credit for pummeling teams that are on the same level as they are, they have yet to prove they can elevate their game vs. teams with superior athletes, and unfortunately for Utah I feel that is exactly the case here. Kentucky, quietly moves on the round of eight here. Two stars on the Cats.

2 units on Kentucky -4 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
WIN
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