UCLA at Florida

We are down to the Final Four, and this is a repeat of a game last year where Florida overwhelmed UCLA, and went on to win the national championship. This game sets up much the same as the '91 NCAA semi-final. UNLV was potent everywhere on the court, and in '90 beat Duke 103-73. They returned everyone, and here was a No. 2 seeded Duke team that no one gave a chance, and they upset UNLV, en route to winning the national championship. There is something about a team with a sour memory that has a chance to exact revenge, and chase the bitterness. There is no doubt which team will be playing with the absolute highest energy, and that will be UCLA. The key factor will be Arron Afflolo. He has slumped badly at the end of the season, but came up big against Kansas, and he looks ready to shine. The odds-makers say this game plays from the low to mid 60-point range at best. That is not Florida basketball at its best. They are 1-5 ATS when the total is 135 points or less. The road here has been unquestionably more difficult for UCLA. They are coming off of wins over Indiana, Pitt, and Kansas. Compare that to Purdue, Oregon and Butler. UCLA has a much higher margin of winning vs. much more difficult opponents, and they have done it with defense. They have allowed just 36.5% FG shooting for the entire tournament. Florida shoots 52.7% a game, but what most don't realize is that against teams that give up 68-ppg or less, they have shot just 43.3%! This is another clue of the fact that a low-scoring game is not when they are at their best. Florida averages 79.8-ppg, and in this tournament, UCLA has held their opponent to an average of 20-ppg below what they have averaged. That puts Florida around the 60-point mark, and that tells us this will be a down-to-the-wire game. UCLA has been 21-6-1 ATS as an underdog, which is when they play their best. They are also 11-2 ATS against teams that shoot 48%+, and as much as a low-scoring game is not when Florida is at their best, UCLA thrives in such situations, having posted a 20-8 ATS mark when the total is posted in the 130s. Florida has not done well as a small favorite, they are 0-4 ATS when favored by 6.5 points or less. Look for UCLA to get redemption from last year, and win this game outright. We also like this game to go UNDER the posted total. NCAA tournament semi-final games have gone UNDER in 35 of the last 59 games played, and teams playing in the semi-finals of a tournament that are returning all five starters from last year (FLA), are 40-16 to the UNDER. When both teams take an average of less than 55 shots a game or less during the season, the UNDER has been 82-40.