Toledo at Northern Illinois

Toledo has had an absolutely miserable season, coming in at 4-26, but an even worse road mark of 0-14. That looks pretty grim, but there is another story here. This was a team that couldn't cover anything they were given, beginning the season at 3-8 ATS when being given doubles. They have improved to the point of turning those ugly numbers around by going 5-2 ATS when given 10+ since. Northern Illinois has struggled down the stretch with just a single win in their last 12 games, and the margin of victory in that game was a slim 2 points. They have also been just 1-5 ATS facing a team with a winning percentage of less than .400. The dog has only failed to cover in two of the last nine in this series. I will go with Toledo here.