Toledo at Central Michigan

Toledo hasn't won a game on the road all season and they face a Central Michigan team that is 7-3 at home. But the Chippewas have been stumbling lately having lost three straight ATS and SU. In their last two games they were just 42-for-124 from the field. As is often the case with a really bad team like Toledo, lines get goosed eventually and what was a terrible play early in the season becomes a real value play later. Toledo started the season 5-12 ATS. "Horrible bet" was ingrained in the public's mind. But since then they are 5-0 ATS. This is another case of a line juice as asking Central Michigan to cover this spread is asking a lot. When these teams met a month ago, Toledo lost by 11 points. And, the Rockets are 8-1 ATS the past three seasons revenging a same-season loss. I like Toledo to keep this close enough to cover the large number.