Texas State vs. Texas Arlington

This should be a war as Texas State takes on Texas Arlington. UT Arlington is a 22 game winner on the season, while the Bobcats enter at a mediocre 15-15. The win column has been impressive for UT Arlington, but an 8-6 finish to the season coupled with a lackluster 4-10 ATS mark in those 14 games, shows they have played well below the line. While they have been racking up the wins, the column that counts here is their inability to put away teams, and lose against the number with high frequency. They stumbled late in the season at home to this same Texas State team, winning by just six as a 10-point favorite, so the door is open for the Bobcats to take the money as a sizable dog. Make the play on Texas State.