Texas State at Georgia State

With its defensive effort on Saturday night, the Bobcats moved up to fifth in the country in defense, averaging just 53.6 points per game allowed. The team's 40 points allowed marked the third time this season the opposition has surrendered 40 or fewer this year. They have a winning record overall and have won five of eight. They are a big dog to a good Georgia State team that likes to run, but Texas State will be slowing it down on the road. Georgia State is laying a ton here and they are on a 1-4 ATS run and 2-7 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Panthers are also 1-6 ATS against team with a winning percentage above .600. Play Texas State. Also take the OVER as I feel this total is set too low as an overreaction. Georgia State is going to score here as Texas State's defense, while great, isn't as great on the road where they have allowed 57.3 per game. In their last five games vs. teams with a .600+ better record, the Panthers are 4-1 to the OVER. They are also 21-10-1 OVER in their last 32 home games overall. Take the points and the OVER here.