Texas Southern at Alabama State

Both of these teams enter this game with identical 7-13 marks. So why is the road team favored? Defense is the answer. Both of these teams are getting around 59 points per game on offense but Texas Southern has played better on the other end of the court. The Tigers have allowed 64.4 per game (55.5 in conference games) while Alabama State has given up over 67 per game and 63.2 per contest in conference games (a full 8 points more than the Tigers). Since the start of conference play, Texas Southern has flourished, going 6-2 and outscoring opponents by 15 points per game. Meanwhile, the Hornets have gone 4-4, getting outscored by their competition! I like the road team to win and cover the spread here.