Texas Arlingt at Memphis

The Tigers were last a #1 seed in 2006 when they lost to UCLA in the regional finals. They should have little trouble with UT Arlington in this one. While the spread is a huge 25 points, we'll focus on the more reasonable total. The Mavericks are not a bad team as they averaged 70.9 on the road this season but again Memphis, they are in for a very tough day. The Tigers allowed 59.4 ppg on the road this season (better than their home defense). They cut that to 54.2 over their last five games! Their last five foes have gotten 55, 56, 56, 53 and 51. Memphis is 17-6 UNDER in March games the past three seasons. They are 21-9 UNDER the past two seasons coming off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewere points. That includes a 10-2 UNDER mark if they allowed 60 or fewere in three straight games. We look for the Tigers to shut down Arlington in a big way, and for this game to stay UNDER the total.