South Florida at Connecticut

UCONN suffered its first loss of the season at W. Virginia but it was the first road test of the year for the Huskies, and first real test overall. S. Florida is not as bad as everyone may think they are, and this line is grossly inflated. S. Florida did not win a road game in the Big East all of last year, and only won seven games overall. But there is a set of unbelievable stats to show why this line is way off. S. Florida played the six best Big East teams on the road last year where they were an underdog of +11.5 to +18 at the highest. They covered all six games and had an average losing margin of just 6 points per game. It gets better. The last 41 times this team has gone on the road, they have played in some tough buildings including Louisville, Marquette, Cinn, DePaul, Syracuse, ND, Georgetown, WVA, and SC just to name a few. In those games they have lost just one time by more than 17 points! That is once in 41 or 2.4% of the time. It gets even better than that. S. Florida is 15-0 ATS as an underdog of 11 or in their last 15 covering several years. The bottom line here is win or lose, your just not going to find this kind of value in a single game. They have not lost by 17 this year home or away.