South Alabama at North Texas

Wrong team favored here in my opinion. S. Alabama has won 60% of the last 10 matchups SU and 70% ATS yet they get 2.5 here. S Alabama is 13-5 on the season and they've played very good defense of late. Sure, North Texas is 10-1 at home but they really haven't played anyone. Five of those games weren't even lined and in the other six they were just 3-3 ATS. Home favorites scoring 78+ PPG after 2 straight games where both teams score 75 points or more now facing an average offensive team are just 35-73 (32%) ATS since 1997. North Texas is gonna run into a good defense here and they won't know what hit them. Three stars on S. Alabama.