San Diego State vs. Arizona

The Mountain West Conference's top team over the past several years is still quietly riding firmly under the radar. The Aztecs are off to a glowing 5-0 start, and are one of the top teams in the country. They will get a measuring stick game taking on the 5-0 and #3 ranked Arizona Wildcats in this one. If you read my ESPN Vegas power rankings yesterday, you know that I think Arizona is overrated at this point. I think they are more like #11 in the nation. Despite having played the likes of Cal Irvine, CS Northridge and Mount St. Mary's, they are not dominating. They are ranked 86th in the nation in scoring and 222nd in rebounding and have failed to cover the number in three of their five games. San Diego State had Arizona on the ropes last March in the NCAA Tournament, and all the players felt as though they let one slip away, and have been focused in Maui hoping for this matchup in the finals. The Aztecs are the more motivated team, playing with purpose. They defend very well, and certainly have enough answers to stay in this one until the end. The Aztecs own an 18-7-1 ATS mark in their last 26 outside the conference, while Arizona is a puzzling 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. the Mountain West, including 1-4 ATS vs. the Aztecs. San Diego State is 5-1-1 in their last seven vs. winning teams and 21-8 UNDER in their last 29 games following a win. Arizona is 6-1-1 UNDER in their last eight vs. winning teams. Back San Diego State and the UNDER in this one.