This pick was released to clients on March 18, 2025 at 1:48PM ET.
img CBB

North Carolina vs. San Diego State

March 18, 2025
img9:21 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

North Carolina's ACC pedigree and its late-season run got it into the NCAA Tournament and now the Tarheels are ready to make the most of it. They won eight of nine before losing to Duke in the ACC Championship game 74-71 after falling behind 45-24 at halftime. Coach Hubert Davis used only eight players against the Blue Devils with Ven-Allen Lubin scoirng a team-leading 20 points. The Tarheels have covered seven straight as a favorite and they have gone UNDER four in a row, including allowing fewer than 60 points against Notre Dame and Wake Forest. San Diego State has split its past six games and lost 62-52 to Boise State in the Mountain West championship game and it went UNDER by 20.5 points. North Carolina has won seven of its past eight games versus Mountain West opponents. The Tarheels are #39 in the country in 3-point defense with 30.7 percent. I'm goign with three plays on this game: Take North Carolina on the moneyline, bet this game UNDER in the first-half, and bet the full game UNDER the total. 

2 units on North Carolina -182 (moneyline) (risk 2 to return 3.1)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on 1st ½ Total UNDER 66.5 -115 (risk 1 to return 1.87)
Result:
LOSS
1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 143.5 -113 (risk 1.5 to return 2.83)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1H
2H
F
North Carolina Tar Heels img
47
48
95
San Diego State Aztecs
23
45
68
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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