Samford at Tenn Martin

The Ohio Valley Conference tournament kicks off with a #4 vs. #5 matchup. We like the dog to advance here. Samford won three of their last four games. UTM holds an 0-5 all time record in this tourney. Add in the fact that they were crushed in their regular season finale, losing by 39 points, and you have a weak psyche for the home team here. This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense. Samford averageed just 58.6 ppg on the season but did it because they wanted to slow things down (they shot 46% from the field). The Bulldogs were great on the defensive end, holding foes to 60.5 ppg (conference opponents managed just 59 per game). UTM scored 76.8 ppg but allowed 76.7 (over 80 in their last five). In a high-intensity tournament game, we think the team with a nearly 20 ppg defensive advantage has a great shot to win the game. The Skyhawks are just 4-13 SU the past two seasons vs. slow-down teams like Samford (those taking under 54 shots per game). Samford is 7-5 this season on the road and 7-5 in the underdog role. They lost to UTM as a favorite at home earlier and they are 8-2 the past three seasons revenging a home favorite loss. We like the dog to win outright here.