This pick was released to clients on October 15, 2012 at 4:26PM ET.
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Pittsburgh at UCLA

March 22, 2007
img9:40 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

This looked like UCLA'S tournament a few weeks ago, but things have changed. The Bruins have had moments of lackluster offense off and on during the season, but none more revealing than what is the genesis of their recent slide. It begins with Arron Afflalo, who mentally may already be in the NBA. Discounting the Weber St. game, which was a total mismatch, he has been horrible, and in a dreadful slump over the last four games. He has been 12-43 (27.9%) from the field, and 5-24 (20.8%) from the three-point arc, and a pedestrian 67% from the line. He was averaging over 18-points per game (PPG), but over the last four, just 9.8-ppg, two rebounds and only one assist, while playing 37 minutes per game. If the Bruins are to move forward they need him badly. The entire team over the same four-game stretch has been 27.5% from three-point range and 61% from the line, and in 3 of the 4 games shot 36.1% as a team. Those numbers won't get it done against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh will not make it easy for UCLA to get out of their offensive slump, as they allow just 40% FG shooting and 30% from three-point land. Pittsburgh has not played much in the Pac-10 winning the only two times they have matched up with the Pac-10 over the last several years, while UCLA has struggled vs. the Big East going just 3-7 SU.

2 units on Pittsburgh +3.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
LOSS
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