Pennsylvania at Princeton

The oddsmakers have still not caught up to Princeton totals. They are stuck between the public perception and reality, which is the reason that seven straight Princeton totals have gone over. Is this the famed "Princeton offense" being employed by the Tigers this season? Not even close! Here is the evidence. Last year Princeton Ivy games averaged 80.6 shots per game and if you toss out a 121 possession OT game, the number is 77.5. This season their games are averaging 96.5 shots per game. The next place to look is, maybe that there are more free throws attempted last year that cut down on the total number of shots? The answer? This year there is not only nearly 20 more shots going up in Princeton games, but on average, nine more free throws as well! There is also a difference in the quality of the 3's being taken as they are averaging almost three made three-point shots a game in their games over a year ago. We are seeing 7.5 points per game in additional made 3's, seven more points a game on free throws, and 20 points a game on the additional shots being taken. That means we are looking at an average of 34.5 points a game. Princeton is allowing 68.1 ppg in their last nine Ivy games. To put that in perspective, not a single team scored over 68 points in Ivy competition against Princeton last year! Last year Princeton did not top 56 points in any Ivy game, except for an OT game with Harvard. This season they have reached or exceeded that number in 11 of 13 games. Penn is averaging 71 ppg in Ivy play and giving up over 72. This game has all the markings of a game being played at, or just over 70. Plenty of value here, and we will play the OVER.