Northwestern State vs. Florida

The Florida Gators can play any style for Coach Billy Donovan, though they don't mind playing a slower pace as they've been hit hard by injuries and depth issues much of the season. Florida is tops in the SEC in points allowed, just 53.7 ppg. Florida is turning on the defense at the right time of the season, at an 8-1 run UNDER the total and the UNDER is 8-1 in the Gators' last nine games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Florida is also No. 1 in the SEC in field goal shooting defense allowing just 37.2% shooting, as well as tops in three-point shooting defense. Defense rears its head more than up-tempo offenses this time of the season with so much at stake. They take on a run-and-gun Northwestern State team, one that led the nation in scoring with 81 ppg, which is why this total is so high. However, they turned on the defense in the Southland tournament, allowing 52 and 66 points the last two games. Look for more defense than oddsmakers expect. Play this one UNDER the total. I also like Florida here. It isn't very typical to see a No. 3 seed favored by over 20 points, but Florida isn't the typical team. Billy Donovan sure has a post-season pedigree at 31-13-3 ATS in his last 47 and this season he has had is Gators running away from a lot of good opponents. Florida, despite playing in a BCS Conference, has 15 wins on the season by 20 points or more. Northwestern State likes to get up and down the court, but plays little defense, while the Gators can score quickly from a lot of places and are capable of big huge runs. I expect a couple of them in this game.This is a complete mismatch with a coach that isn't afraid to win big. Take Florida and play the UNDER in this one.