Northwestern at Iowa

Both of these teams are UNDER teams. Northwestern averages just 55.4 ppg on the road while Iowa averages 57.9 per game at home while holding opponents to 54.1 per game. But, Northwestern's defense is bad. They give up 67.9 per game on the road but that has ballooned to 74.6 per game over their last five games. In twelve conference games, they are giving up 73.7 per game. Games with a total under 130 featuring a home team off three straight conference losses go OVER 60% of the time (188-125 over the past ten years). Northwestern is 8-1 OVER the past three seasons vs. slow-down teams like Iowa (those averaging under 54 shots per game). We like the OVER here.