Northern Kentucky at Valparaiso

The Valparaiso Crusaders have positioned themselves as a top mid-major program, as they have gotten off to a stellar 20-4 start to the season. The problem is that the oddsmakers have taken notice as they have been favored by 19.5 points or more in each of their last four games, while prior to the last four they were favored by 19.5 or more just one time. Northern Kentucky is just 9-14 on the season, but of the nine wins they have delivered five of them in their last nine games at 5-4. Prior to that they were being outscored by an average of just 4.6 points per game, and over the last nine they are +1.6, and are a team on the improve. This is not a likely spot for the Crusader's "A" game, and I think an improving Norse team manages to sneak in under a bloated number. Take the points on Northern Kentucky.