Northern Iowa at Illinois State

Two solid MVC teams clash here. They own the two best defenses in the league with N. Iowa allowing 56.4 ppg and Illinois State allowing 57.4 per game. The total is set low as a result. While the UNDER appears the obvious choice, we like the other side. N. Iowa is 5-2 UNDER at home but just 2-2 OVER-UNDER on the road. Illinois State is 5-2 UNDER on the road but just 3-2 UNDER at home, where they are undefeated. When these teams met 11 months ago, 137 points were scored in what was also supposed to be a low-scoring game. Illinois State hits 39.4% from beyond the arc (43.1% at home) and they have put up scores of 81, 80 and 73 this season, so they can score. They are 7-0 OVER in their last seven home games after going UNDER the total in two consecutive games. We like the contrarian play on the OVER here.