Northern Illinois at Buffalo

Northern Illinois is playing some defense down the stretch on a 9-1 run UNDER the total. That included a win over Miami of Ohio, 62-59, as a +5.5 underdog, and a win at Toledo, 75-72, as a +16 dog. The offense is seventh in the conference in scoring, sixth in shooting, and fifth in rebounding. Northern Illinois is 47-24 ATS on the road off a conference home loss and 12-4 UNDER on the road after playing a home game. Buffalo is favored but is last in the MAC (2-15), including 2-12 straight up at home. They've been favored five times this season but lost four of them. Buffalo is 10th in the 12-team MAC in points scored (68 per game), plus last in shooting (.422), and 3-point shooting (.272), while the defense is last in points surrendered (79.8 per game), 11th in field goal shooting allowed (.475), and last at defending beyond the arc (.365). They're also last in turnover margin (-4.03). Buffalo is 3-10 ATS at home and 12-25 ATS after playing a home game. They're also 16-7 UNDER the total after playing three straight as an underdog. Play Northern Illinois + UNDER the total.