North Carolina at UAB

The Tar Heels didn't make the NCAA tournament this year which is clearly a disaster for this team. They could have folded tent, thinking the NIT wasn't worth their effort. Many expected them to. To their credit, they did not. Roy Williams would not let them. We were on them last game when they were getting 7.5 points from Mississippi State. The Heels won that game outright. Now they are getting points again and again I like them to fight hard to stay close, if not win. UAB looks like the better team on paper, having gone 25-8. But the competition they have faced this season in Conference USA is vastly different. In looking at how these two teams fared against common opponents this season, we can get a glimpse of what might happen here. These teams both faced Marshall, NC State and Virginia. In those games, North Carolina went 3-1 SU and ATS, winning on average by 12 points per game. UAB went 0-3 SU and ATS, losing by an average margin of 7.4 per game! Huge difference. UAB is off a big 20-point win but that's not good for them as they stand at 10-20 ATS the past two seasons when coming off an ATS win. In tournament games the past three seasons, the Blazers are just 5-14 ATS! Under Roy Williams, the Heels are 17-8 ATS in post-season tournament games. It's not often we get him and his team with points. I'm backing North Carolina here.