North Carolina at Texas

The Longhorns are off to an inauspicious start at 6-4. But look a bit deeper and we see that this team is 5-0 at home, winning by 16 points per game. North Carolina has lost two of their last three road games and under-performed last game out vs. East Carolina. This Tar Heels team has covered the spread just once in their last six games. As good as this team has been under Roy Williams, they struggle mightily on the road vs. good defensive teams, going just 16-30 ATS on the road vs. teams like Texas that hold opponents to under 40% shooting. And, in the Rick Barnes era, Texas is 33-20 ATS at home vs. good offensive teams like NC (those averaging 77+ points per game). Take Texas with the points.