North Carolina (32-4, 19-15-1 ATS) advanced to the national championship with a convincing 87-71 win over Michigan State easily topping the 5 point spot cashing in against the spread for the second time during NCAA Tournament play (2-2-1 ATS). Illinois (37-1, 16-13-1 ATS) on the strength of 20-point performances by Luther Head and Roger Powell Jr. crushed the Louisville Cardinals 72-57 earning the right to battle Tar Heels for the Championship. Like the Heels, Fighting Illini backers had an easy cover moving the mark to 3-2 ATS. The stage is set. The Heels are undoubtedly the most talented college basketball team in the country sporting a powerful offense averaging 86 points/game in the tournament up against Illinois' superb defense (64.6 PPG) which will make UNC work for every point while avoiding the deadly Tar Heel runs that have devastated opponents. A close one to be sure, but who grabs the cash?? A tough one considering the trends, teams who covered their last game by fourteen or more points sport a dismal 1-4 ATS record in the big game however number-one seeds are 4-0 ATS last five years in the Championship. But, in the last seven with a favorite of 6 or less points, the favorite covered six times. Should be close but I think North Carolina will win and cover the small number. Two stars on the Heels to finally get Roy Williams his championship.
Most championship teams are stamped by their offensive explosiveness, and NC is no exception to that. Illinois has a different stamp, capble of filling it offensively, but this season has been stamped on their ability at the other end of the court. Since the 1st of the year, covering 26 games, just 1 team manged to get to 70 points on this team. Along the trail of this season, this is what we have seen from the ILLINI vs some very offensively capable teams:
Gonzaga scored 72 very early on, before this team's identity had been established. Dispite all that, it represented the 7th lowest total for the Zags all year. Wake Forest 73 again very early, but the 5th lowest output for the Deacons. Cincinnati scored 45, their lowest output all year. Ohio State posted their 7th lowest point total of the year (65). Michigan State put in 68 - their 5th lowest all year. Louisville - 57 (lowest of the year). Wisconsin Milwaukee 63 - their 6th lowest (keep in mind the only lower scores were against Detroit Mercy twice, Air Force, STL all notorious for games in the 40s-50s, Wisconsin, and Kansas).
63.2ppg vs some talented scoring teams, the label on this team, undoubtedly is defense. So how can you relate past performance into a current event? Well, there are no absolutes in sports betting, but their are ways to take "like" games, and extrapolate to the present, for that edge, by creating a truer expectation. So how about the high-scoring Tarheels? Can they be stopped? I don't think so, but they can be slowed, and here is the proof. In looking at games since December 5th, after teams have established their identity, start by looking for competitive games for NC, as most were not. Let's focus on games with a line of 11 or less. Yes, there are upsets with higher lines, but they happen with a high degree of infrequency, and would not be ranked as what would be expected to be a very competitive game. So what happens? Well, NC had 16 games with a line greater that 11, and in each and every one the scoring machine spit out points. Not a game of the 16 under 80, and 10 of 16 over 90, and four 100's thrown in for good measure. The average was a highly offensive 94.4ppg. Now back to our games deemed "competitive" vs. those above, where the line was 11 or less - there were 11 of them. The results tell a completely different story, and combined with what we dicerned from Illinois on the other side of the court above, shows where the true predictive value lies tonight. NC in those 11 competitive games failed to hit the 94.4ppg average from the non-competitive games even once! The fact is they did not make it to 80 even half the time, while hitting 80 in 16 of 16 other games. They failed in 6 of 11 games to reach 80, and averaged only 78.5ppg in these games. So how do you tie this all together? Here is a total of 154 that at first glance doesn't offer much help in choosing a side. Now look at it this way. NC is a 78.5ppg scoring team, in similar situations, while ILL is a 63.2ppg defensive team in similar situations. It sure gives you a truer, but much different look as to where the value is in tonights game. Now translate these #'s into game strategy: Illinois likes to get out and run, but I believe it would be suicide to do it other than in selected spots to try to beat NC that way. We have seen that this is an experienced team, that can run their offense deep into the shot clock, and not panic, and still get off a good shot. NC is going to try to run right down their throat, but we have seen this team struggle sharing the ball, and because there is so much fire power, often taking quick shots. Combine this by having to play on the other end deep into the shot clock it may cause them to rush a bit more. I have to believe that from what I have detected from an expectation of "like" games, and a game strategy, and how that plays into the outcome, that this game is going to be played in the 70s. That means most of those results would fall to the win column at 154. Take the UNDER for five big stars.