North Carolina at Florida State

Florida State is home and the defense is very good, sixth in the ACC in points allowed (66 per game), and fourth in FG defense (allowing 40%). They can pack the paint and play the physical game in the low post with 6-9 senior Okaro White (12.8 points per game, 6.8 rebounds per game) and 6-7 soph Montay Brandon (8 points per game, 5 rebounds per game). They are on a 3-2 run UNDER the total and just held Wake Forest to 60 points and 37.7% shooting on their own floor in a win. Now they come home to face rival North Carolina. These teams have 17 and 15 wins each, so it's a big game. And marquee games late in the season like this means both teams will bring their A-games on defense. North Carolina clicks on offense at home, but the UNDER is 10-4 in the Tar Heels last 14 road games. North Carolina is on a 2-1 run UNDER the total allowing 63, 62, and 71 points the last three games (all wins). The UNDER is 10-4 in Tar Heels last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record, so look for more defense than oddsmakers anticipate. Play North Carolina/Florida State UNDER the Total.