NC Wilmington vs. Duke

Tourney time is about quality guard play and NC Wilmington is loaded, with a three-guard lineup led by junior guard Chris Flemmings (16.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Denzel Ingram (12.5 ppg) and Craig Ponder (11.1 ppg). They are tough to defend on the perimeter, plus driving to the hole. The Seahawks have been in tournament mode for more than a week after having to scrape through three close games in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. They won their first two games in the tournament by a total of five points and needed overtime to dispatch Hofstra in the championship game. NC Wilimington won't try and run-and-gun with Duke, ranked #3 in the Colonial in field goal defense and #4 at defending beyond the arc. They are a big dog to a Duke Blue Devils team that doesn't look much like the defending national champions. They’ve struggled at times after losing big man Amile Jefferson to a broken foot just nine games into the season and won just one game in the ACC tournament before losing to Notre Dame in overtime. Duke knows the value of defense this time of the season, as well, and can play any style, on an 8-2 run UNDER the total, plus 20-7 UNDER against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Duke is 0-6 ATS at neutral sites and NC Wilmington has more than enough offense and scrappy defense to hang within this number. Play NC Wilimington and also take the UNDER.