NC Wilmington at Wake Forest

On the surface this one looks easy for Wake. They have won twelve straight meetings in this matchup including an 11-point victory last year. But this Deacons team isn't the same as they have been in the past. They have already lost by double-digits to Stetson (who?) , by double-digits to Virginia Commonwealth and by 9 to Winthrop, losing that one as a 7.5 favorite. The Deacs are just 17-38 ATS in their last 55 neutral court games including 11-26 ATS as a favorite as they are often over-valued. Seahawks head coach Buzz Peterson is 25-7 ATS following a road loss to a conference rival. He's also 19-8 ATS following a game in which his team scored 60 or fewer points. I like the Seahawks plus the points. I also like the UNDER here. Wilmington is averaging just 62 points per game on the season. In their last twelve games vs. teams at .600 or better, the Seahawks have gone 10-2 to the UNDER. They are alos 10-3-1 UNDER in their last 14 games as an underdog in to 7 - 12.5 range. I like UNC Wilmington and the UNDER here.