North Carolina State vs. Louisville

The North Carolina State Wolfpack has 13 losses, but they have stepped up vs. the better teams. NC State owns a pair of wins vs. #1 seeds, a pair of covers vs. #2 seeds, an OT loss to a #3 seed, and three covers vs #4 seeds, including a straight-up win. Louisville has seen their offense struggle since Chris Jones was booted off the team. The Cards' defense has struggled a lot more over the second half of the season, allowing 7 of 16 teams to get to 68 or more, while just three of their first 18 opponents did so. The Wolfpack hit them for 74 in Louisville earlier in the season, and the total here sure looks attainable. Louisville has not been as defensive on a neutral court as they have played to a 17-7-1 mark to the OVER in their last 25. Take the OVER in this one.