Middle Tenn State at New Orleans

The Privateers appear to be a good home club, dropping just one, but their schedule is extremely weak with two wins coming against teams below Div-1, and the other two vs. Houston Baptist and Texas State. The fact is that this team has dropped six in a row playing teams more on their level, including three straight ATS. It looks like a live home dog until you dig inside the numbers. Middle Tennessee has thrived in the role of road chalk as they are now 9-4 ATS in their last 13. The Privateers are reeling after taking a 10+ point loss at home at just 2-8 ATS in their last 10. I'll go with Middle Tennessee St. here.