Missouri State at Wichita State

Wichita State has covered nine of the last ten games between these two teams here at home. They have lost six in a row and eight of nine but they are favored here for a reason. This is their best chance to nail a win. Missouri State is off a bitter loss to Evansville. The Bears lost by 19 points in a game they were supposed to win. We think they suffer a hangover of sorts here. They are 1-9 on the road this season and 0-7 ATS. The offenses here are pretty even (Bears scoring 61.9 per game on the road and Shockers getting 61.5 at home). But, the defensive difference is huge as Wichita averages 59.4 ppg allowed at home while Missouri State gives up 71.3 per game on the road - a 12 point difference. If there's one thing Wichita State does well, it's rebound. And, the Bears are 1-8 ATS this season vs. good rebounding teams (those that outrebound opponents by 4+ per game). This line should be MUCH higher and we like the home team as a result.