Missouri State at Northern Iowa

Missouri State has started the season at 4-0, and yet here they are heading for a conference game on the road against 1-5 Northern Iowa -- and they are the underdog. They are just off a 20-point win vs this team yesterday, and it was the first of three straight played between these teams. The biggest factor here is that Northern Iowa has played a much tougher schedule and Game 1 was an outlier, as Missouri State out-shot Norhtern Iowa by 20%. The Panthers do not turn the ball over, as their last four games show them with 10 turnovers or fewer in all four. The shooting differential is not sustainable, and Northern Iowa will be the more motivated team after their poor performance yesterday. I like Northern Iowa on the moneyline.