Mississippi State at Kentucky

The Bulldogs need a good showing here if they want to ensure a trip to the Dance. There is no doubt who the better team is here, but Mississippi State has got to be more motivated and they will be fighting and clawing all game. They perform well against winning teams as they have gone 29-17 ATS the past two seasons vs. winning teams and 15-3 ATS vs. teams that score 77+ points per game. In addition to the NCAA Tournament motivation, the Bulldogs are playing for revenge here as they lost last time out to the Wildcats. Mississippi State is 8-1 ATS the past two seasons on the road revenging a loss. They are off a great defensive effort, holding Vandy to just 52 points. That bodes well also as the Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS this season after a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points. I'm taking Miss State here. I also like the UNDER. The Bulldogs have gone UNDER in 12 of 17 road games this season and the Wildcats have gone UNDER in eight of fourteen. These two teams play great defense with each averaging 63.8 per game allowed on the road. When facing good teams (those outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg), Kentucky is 13-5 UNDER this season. In neutral-court games, Mississippi State is 11-3 UNDER over the past couple of seasons. Take the Bulldogs and the UNDER here.