Mississippi State at Clemson

Clemson has gotten off to a fast start and sit at 5-0. Mississippi St. has dropped just one to a very good Winthrop team that gave N.C. all it could handle. If you look at the stats from the MISS ST/WINTHROP game it was a dead heat, even though Miss St. lost by 11. They shot the same from the field, rebounds were within 3, turnovers within 3, assists within 1, blocks even. How did they lose by 11? Winthrop hit 26-30 FT'S, to 15-22 for state. That's 11 points at the line on 87% shooting! Mississippi St. has played teams that have shot 82% against them from the line or top 10 in the country. That will not be the case tonight. Last year Clemson shot a horrible 61.7% from the line, and that was with Shawan Robinson connecting on 91.3%. It cost them many close games, and more importantly here, point-spread covers. It would appear the loss of a 90%+ FT shooter would make a bad FT shooting team worse, and it has. This year they sit at 53.4% and are near the bottom of the country at 326th. The 5-0 start has translated to 2-2 ATS, with the culprit being FT shooting. Mississippi State is amongst the nation's leaders in defending. They rank 13th in FG% defense holding opponents to 31.1%, and rank 10th in 3pt FG defense at 18.8%. The fact is, Mississippi State is closer than 10 points to this Clemson team, and when you factor in where Mississippi State has lost points in its games (82% FT shooting by opponents), and Clemson's inability to connect at the line (53.4%), it turns a 10 point spread into more like 16-18. The strength of Mississippi St. is its guard play, and we like a team playing on the road that defends well, has good guards, and of course the huge FT advantage.