Mississippi at Saint Louis

This is a game that will feature a pretender vs. a contender. With that kind of matchup comes substantial line value. Mississippi is off to an 11-2 start falling only to UCONN, and Memphis. Here is the real story behind the numbers and philosophy at this school. Every year Mississippi jumps out of the gate big by stacking up the cupcakes in their own gym. The history speaks loud and clear. They have compiled an early season record over the past 5 years of 11-2, 13-3, 9-4, 8-3, and 9-2 for a combined record of 50-14. It looks like stats from an elite program. Now let's share the rest of the story. Last year's team went 13-3 out of the gate, and like many of the previous years, subsequently dropped 13 of their last 14. The fact is with the 50-14 start, they have not had a winning record in four consecutive years and they stand 30 games below .500 in the SEC in that span. Want more proof? They have gone ahead and supplied the same countless cupcakes at home again this year. They are 10-0 at home, and the combined road record of the teams they beat is 12-68. That is 15%! We'll add one more stat for the record. Once this team has to leave their building and play someone, they have been a dismal 10-38. Yes, that is the same team that compiled the 50-14 record against the cupcakes. St. Louis was the surprise of the Atlantic 10 last year in their first year. They were picked to be a bottom dweller and ended up finishing 3rd at 10-6. They return 7 of the top 8 scorers from that team, and 87% of their rebounding as well, and are always tough at home where they are unbeaten this year. There is tremendous line value in this one as St. Louis at -4 is basically being treated like these teams are evenly matched with the 4 representing a home-court advantage. These teams aren't even. St. Louis is a much better team at home than Mississippi is on the road, and we will play St. Louis big in this one.