Michigan vs. Louisville

Michigan continues to get no respect from oddsmakers, especially against good teams. The Wolverines are 37-18-1 ATS over their last 56 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600. Michigan has used its athleticism and quickness to over-perform expectations and I look for more of the same tonight. This team has excelled on neutral courts, having gone 9-1 both straight up and against-the-spread this season in neutral-court games. Trey Burke leads the Wolverines in scoring and assists. While he gets the attention, freshman forward Mitch McGary has emerged as this team’s star in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 19.7 points and 12.3 rebounds. Complimenting those two, junior guard Tim Hardaway Jr. has added 14.8 points per game. The Michigan defense has been sharp, allowing 41.8% shooting to Syracuse. The Wolverines out rebounded the Orange, including 13-9 on the offensive glass, despite being undersized. Michigan out-gutted Syracuse in that game and if they bring the same grit tonight, they have an excellent shot at winning this game. Michigan’s offense is incredibly efficient, ranking 27th in the nation in scoring and ninth in field goal shooting. The Wolverines are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 non-conference games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games. Louisville has dominated points in the paint this postseason....until the last game vs. athletic Wichita State who out rebounded the Cards, including on the offensive glass. This Michigan team is quicker and more athletic and will give Louisville a tough time up front. Also, what is going on with Louisville at the free throw line? The last three games they were 65% (17-26) against Oregon, missed 11 free throws against Duke and ten more against Wichita. That's a flaw that can be exposed in an expected close game like this. The Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games. And as tough as Louisville has been this season, they have an Achilles heel: teams that can fill up the basket give them fits. When facing teams that hit 48%+ from the field, Michigan hits 48.3%, the Cardinals are 0-6 ATS this season. Under John Beilein, Michigan is 51-35 ATS as an underdog. Take the Wolverines and the points.