Michigan vs. Florida

Michigan came back from down 14 late to survive and advance to the Elite 8, while Florida shook off rust and got the best of Florida Gulf Coast to make it here. This game should be hard-fought to the finish. Michigan continues to use its athleticism and quickness to excel on neutral courts, going 8-1 straight up at neutral sites and 7-1 ATS. Freshman forward Mitch McGary has emerged as a star in the NCAA Tournament by averaging 19.7 points and 12.3 rebounds, alongside a slew of talent with junior guard Tim Hardaway Jr (14.8 pppg) and Trey Burke, who leads the Wolverines in scoring (18.9) and assists (6.8) and finished with 23 points and 10 assists against Kansas. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. Florida is 3-8 ATS against a team with a winning record this season. The Wolverines match up against Florida much better than they did against Kansas. Play Michigan. These teams are both in the same league and that means a lot of fouling at the end as one team fights for their tournament life. The Gators have gone for 70+ in 20 games on the season while Michigan has done so 25 times, despite playing in a defensive conference, the Big-10. The total posted here requires neither team to get to 70, and I think at least one of them does. Michigan is now 11-4-1 to the OVER in their last 16 neutral site games and they have played OVER to a 16-7-1 mark in their last 24 non-conference games. Yes, the Gators play great defense but over the past two seasons, Michigan is 16-7 to the OVER on the road vs. teams that hold opponents to 42% or less from the field and 13-5 to the OVER on the road vs. teams that allow under 65 points per game. The Gators have gone four straight vs. the Big-10 to the OVER and their last 30 non-conference battles have resulted in a 21-9 mark to the OVER. Take the Wolverines and the OVER.