Miami at Duke

Miami likes to run but the defense ranks 142nd in the nation as they've lost two of their last four. That included a 76-70 loss at Georgia Tech as a 6.5-point favorite. Miami is 20-35 ATS after allowing 75+ points in two consecutive contests. Duke has home court and better balance, ranked 42nd in points scored and 33rd defensively, including second in the ACC in points allowed (63.4 ppg). Duke is in bounce-back mode after a loss at Clemson and is 95-67 ATS at home after a game where they failed to cover, as well as 12-3 ATS at home after failing to cover in three or more straight games. Play Duke.